$2,500 Mirror — Simulated Scale
$2,711.64Return+8.47%
Cash$2,575.90
Open risk$135.74
Kalshi demo · research terminal
The engine mostly says no.
Independent forecasts, executable prices, and ruthless reasons to pass. Every decision below is recorded before the outcome and kept after it.
Last exchange sync8/21/2026, 5:30:41 AM
$100 Micro — Real Demo Orders
$94.79Return-5.21%
Cash$90.06
Open risk$4.73
Market scanner
Decision cascade
Eligiblein the current trading window
300
Researchedindependent evidence
25
Qualifiedcleared hard filters
25
Trade signalsedge beat every gate
0
The engine mostly says no — declining is a result, not a failure.100.0% passed
Risk policy
Guardrails
- Single position
- 1.5% hard max
- Total open risk
- 5.0% of bankroll max
- Correlation cluster
- 15.0% max
- Daily drawdown halt
- 6.0%
- Minimum net edge
- 7.0 pts
- Fractional Kelly
- 0.25×
- Measurement target
- 2.0%/day
The daily figure is a measurement target, not a promise. The engine never forces a trade or relaxes a cap to chase it.
Ranked by rubric and edge
Opportunities
Demo-money execution
Automation activity
Latest cyclecompleted
Considered300
Researched25
Candidates25
Approved0
Demo orders0
Demo orders
| Market | Side | Price | Contracts | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the maximum temperature be 79-80° on Aug 20, 2026?KXHIGHLAX-26AUG20-B79.5 | YES | 4¢ | 1.0000 | executed |
| Will the maximum temperature be 79-80° on Aug 20, 2026?KXHIGHCHI-26AUG20-B79.5 | NO | 14¢ | 2.0000 | executed |
| Will the maximum temperature be 77-78° on Aug 20, 2026?KXHIGHCHI-26AUG20-B77.5 | YES | 12¢ | 1.0000 | executed |
| Will the maximum temperature be 104-105° on Aug 20, 2026?KXHIGHAUS-26AUG20-B104.5 | NO | 39¢ | 11.0000 | executed |
Model positions
| Ledger | Market | Entry | Risk | Status / P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100 micro — real demo orders | Will the maximum temperature be 79-80° on Aug 20, 2026?YES · 1.0000 contracts · kalshi demo | 4¢ | $0.0400 | openunsettled |
| $2,500 mirror — simulated scale | Will the maximum temperature be 79-80° on Aug 20, 2026?YES · 1194.0000 contracts · shadow simulation | 4¢ | $47.7600 | openunsettled |
| $100 micro — real demo orders | Will the maximum temperature be 79-80° on Aug 20, 2026?NO · 2.0000 contracts · kalshi demo | 14¢ | $0.2800 | openunsettled |
| $2,500 mirror — simulated scale | Will the maximum temperature be 79-80° on Aug 20, 2026?NO · 67.0000 contracts · shadow simulation | 14¢ | $9.3800 | openunsettled |
| $100 micro — real demo orders | Will the maximum temperature be 77-78° on Aug 20, 2026?YES · 1.0000 contracts · kalshi demo | 12¢ | $0.1200 | openunsettled |
| $2,500 mirror — simulated scale | Will the maximum temperature be 77-78° on Aug 20, 2026?YES · 5.0000 contracts · shadow simulation | 12¢ | $0.6000 | openunsettled |
| $100 micro — real demo orders | Will the maximum temperature be 104-105° on Aug 20, 2026?NO · 11.0000 contracts · kalshi demo | 39¢ | $4.2900 | openunsettled |
| $2,500 mirror — simulated scale | Will the maximum temperature be 104-105° on Aug 20, 2026?NO · 200.0000 contracts · shadow simulation | 39¢ | $78.0000 | openunsettled |
$100 micro — real demo orders
Equity curve
View equity data table
| Date | Equity |
|---|---|
| Aug 18 | $100.00 |
| Aug 18 | $100.00 |
| Aug 18 | $100.00 |
| Aug 18 | $100.00 |
| Aug 18 | $100.00 |
| Aug 18 | $100.00 |
| Aug 18 | $100.00 |
| Aug 18 | $100.00 |
| Aug 18 | $100.00 |
| Aug 18 | $100.00 |
| Aug 18 | $100.00 |
| Aug 18 | $100.00 |
| Aug 18 | $100.00 |
| Aug 18 | $100.00 |
| Aug 19 | $99.93 |
| Aug 19 | $99.87 |
| Aug 19 | $99.85 |
| Aug 19 | $99.69 |
| Aug 19 | $99.67 |
| Aug 20 | $95.30 |
| Aug 20 | $95.12 |
| Aug 20 | $95.11 |
| Aug 20 | $94.81 |
| Aug 20 | $94.79 |
| Aug 20 | $94.79 |
Append-only
System events
- automation cycle completed
Weather strategy automation cycle completed
- automation cycle completed
Weather strategy automation cycle completed
- automation cycle completed
Weather strategy automation cycle completed
- automation cycle completed
Weather strategy automation cycle completed
- automation cycle completed
Weather strategy automation cycle completed
- automation cycle completed
Weather strategy automation cycle completed
- automation cycle completed
Weather strategy automation cycle completed
- automation cycle completed
Weather strategy automation cycle completed