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Market audit

KXHIGHLAX-26AUG20-B77.5

Every forecast revision and decision stays visible after the outcome.

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Latest decision

Model vs market

Latest observation

Market snapshot

YES bid
96.0%
YES ask
96.1%
NO bid
3.9%
NO ask
4.0%
Last price
96.1%
Observed
8/21/2026, 6:12:20 AM

Immutable evidence

Decision history

49 records
watch
Raw7.4%
Calibrated22.9%
Range7.9%–37.9%
Net edge48.2%
Rubric81/100
  • model-market divergence exceeds plausibility cap
  • position size below one whole contract
watch
Raw7.4%
Calibrated22.9%
Range7.9%–37.9%
Net edge48.2%
Rubric81/100
  • model-market divergence exceeds plausibility cap
  • position size below one whole contract
watch
Raw7.4%
Calibrated22.9%
Range7.9%–37.9%
Net edge48.2%
Rubric81/100
  • model-market divergence exceeds plausibility cap
  • position size below one whole contract
watch
Raw7.5%
Calibrated22.9%
Range7.9%–37.9%
Net edge48.1%
Rubric81/100
  • model-market divergence exceeds plausibility cap
  • position size below one whole contract
watch
Raw7.5%
Calibrated22.9%
Range7.9%–37.9%
Net edge48.1%
Rubric81/100
  • model-market divergence exceeds plausibility cap
  • position size below one whole contract
watch
Raw7.5%
Calibrated22.9%
Range7.9%–37.9%
Net edge48.1%
Rubric81/100
  • model-market divergence exceeds plausibility cap
  • position size below one whole contract
watch
Raw7.5%
Calibrated22.9%
Range7.9%–37.9%
Net edge48.1%
Rubric81/100
  • model-market divergence exceeds plausibility cap
  • position size below one whole contract
watch
Raw7.5%
Calibrated22.9%
Range7.9%–37.9%
Net edge48.1%
Rubric81/100
  • model-market divergence exceeds plausibility cap
  • position size below one whole contract
watch
Raw7.5%
Calibrated22.9%
Range7.9%–37.9%
Net edge48.1%
Rubric81/100
  • model-market divergence exceeds plausibility cap
  • position size below one whole contract
watch
Raw7.6%
Calibrated22.9%
Range7.9%–37.9%
Net edge48.1%
Rubric81/100
  • model-market divergence exceeds plausibility cap
  • position size below one whole contract
watch
Raw7.5%
Calibrated22.9%
Range7.9%–37.9%
Net edge48.1%
Rubric81/100
  • model-market divergence exceeds plausibility cap
  • position size below one whole contract
watch
Raw7.6%
Calibrated23.0%
Range8.0%–38.0%
Net edge48.1%
Rubric81/100
  • model-market divergence exceeds plausibility cap
  • position size below one whole contract
watch
Raw7.6%
Calibrated23.0%
Range8.0%–38.0%
Net edge48.1%
Rubric81/100
  • model-market divergence exceeds plausibility cap
  • position size below one whole contract
watch
Raw7.7%
Calibrated23.0%
Range8.0%–38.0%
Net edge48.0%
Rubric81/100
  • model-market divergence exceeds plausibility cap
  • position size below one whole contract
watch
Raw7.6%
Calibrated23.0%
Range8.0%–38.0%
Net edge48.1%
Rubric81/100
  • model-market divergence exceeds plausibility cap
  • position size below one whole contract
watch
Raw7.7%
Calibrated23.0%
Range8.0%–38.0%
Net edge48.0%
Rubric81/100
  • model-market divergence exceeds plausibility cap
  • position size below one whole contract
watch
Raw7.8%
Calibrated23.1%
Range8.1%–38.1%
Net edge48.0%
Rubric81/100
  • model-market divergence exceeds plausibility cap
  • position size below one whole contract
watch
Raw7.8%
Calibrated23.1%
Range8.1%–38.1%
Net edge48.0%
Rubric81/100
  • model-market divergence exceeds plausibility cap
  • position size below one whole contract
watch
Raw7.9%
Calibrated23.1%
Range8.1%–38.1%
Net edge47.9%
Rubric82/100
  • model-market divergence exceeds plausibility cap
  • position size below one whole contract
watch
Raw7.9%
Calibrated23.2%
Range8.2%–38.2%
Net edge47.9%
Rubric82/100
  • model-market divergence exceeds plausibility cap
  • position size below one whole contract
watch
Raw7.9%
Calibrated23.2%
Range8.2%–38.2%
Net edge47.9%
Rubric82/100
  • model-market divergence exceeds plausibility cap
  • position size below one whole contract
watch
Raw7.7%
Calibrated23.0%
Range8.0%–38.0%
Net edge48.0%
Rubric81/100
  • model-market divergence exceeds plausibility cap
  • position size below one whole contract
watch
Raw7.7%
Calibrated23.1%
Range8.1%–38.1%
Net edge48.0%
Rubric81/100
  • model-market divergence exceeds plausibility cap
  • position size below one whole contract
watch
Raw7.7%
Calibrated23.1%
Range8.1%–38.1%
Net edge48.0%
Rubric81/100
  • model-market divergence exceeds plausibility cap
  • position size below one whole contract
watch
Raw7.9%
Calibrated23.1%
Range8.1%–38.1%
Net edge47.9%
Rubric81/100
  • model-market divergence exceeds plausibility cap
  • position size below one whole contract
watch
Raw8.0%
Calibrated23.2%
Range8.2%–38.2%
Net edge47.9%
Rubric82/100
  • model-market divergence exceeds plausibility cap
  • position size below one whole contract
watch
Raw8.0%
Calibrated23.2%
Range8.2%–38.2%
Net edge47.9%
Rubric82/100
  • model-market divergence exceeds plausibility cap
  • position size below one whole contract
watch
Raw8.0%
Calibrated23.2%
Range8.2%–38.2%
Net edge47.9%
Rubric82/100
  • model-market divergence exceeds plausibility cap
  • position size below one whole contract
watch
Raw8.1%
Calibrated23.3%
Range8.3%–38.3%
Net edge47.8%
Rubric82/100
  • model-market divergence exceeds plausibility cap
  • position size below one whole contract
watch
Raw8.1%
Calibrated23.3%
Range8.3%–38.3%
Net edge47.8%
Rubric82/100
  • model-market divergence exceeds plausibility cap
  • position size below one whole contract
watch
Raw8.1%
Calibrated23.3%
Range8.3%–38.3%
Net edge47.8%
Rubric82/100
  • model-market divergence exceeds plausibility cap
  • position size below one whole contract
watch
Raw8.2%
Calibrated23.3%
Range8.3%–38.3%
Net edge47.8%
Rubric82/100
  • model-market divergence exceeds plausibility cap
  • position size below one whole contract
watch
Raw8.0%
Calibrated23.2%
Range8.2%–38.2%
Net edge47.9%
Rubric82/100
  • model-market divergence exceeds plausibility cap
  • position size below one whole contract
watch
Raw8.0%
Calibrated23.2%
Range8.2%–38.2%
Net edge47.9%
Rubric82/100
  • model-market divergence exceeds plausibility cap
  • position size below one whole contract
watch
Raw8.2%
Calibrated23.4%
Range8.4%–38.4%
Net edge47.8%
Rubric82/100
  • model-market divergence exceeds plausibility cap
  • position size below one whole contract
watch
Raw8.2%
Calibrated23.4%
Range8.4%–38.4%
Net edge47.8%
Rubric82/100
  • model-market divergence exceeds plausibility cap
  • position size below one whole contract
watch
Raw7.3%
Calibrated22.7%
Range7.7%–37.7%
Net edge48.3%
Rubric81/100
  • model-market divergence exceeds plausibility cap
watch
Raw2.4%
Calibrated19.7%
Range4.7%–34.7%
Net edge49.4%
Rubric81/100
  • model-market divergence exceeds plausibility cap
  • position size below one whole contract
watch
Raw5.3%
Calibrated21.5%
Range6.5%–36.5%
Net edge47.9%
Rubric81/100
  • model-market divergence exceeds plausibility cap
  • position size below one whole contract
watch
Raw7.5%
Calibrated22.9%
Range7.9%–37.9%
Net edge46.8%
Rubric81/100
  • model-market divergence exceeds plausibility cap
  • position size below one whole contract
watch
Raw5.6%
Calibrated21.7%
Range6.7%–36.7%
Net edge46.3%
Rubric81/100
  • model-market divergence exceeds plausibility cap
  • position size below one whole contract
watch
Raw5.6%
Calibrated21.7%
Range6.7%–36.7%
Net edge46.3%
Rubric81/100
  • model-market divergence exceeds plausibility cap
  • position size below one whole contract
watch
Raw3.9%
Calibrated20.6%
Range5.6%–35.6%
Net edge47.2%
Rubric81/100
  • model-market divergence exceeds plausibility cap
  • position size below one whole contract
watch
Raw2.0%
Calibrated19.4%
Range4.4%–34.4%
Net edge31.1%
Rubric80/100
  • model-market divergence exceeds plausibility cap
  • position size below one whole contract
watch
Raw2.0%
Calibrated19.4%
Range4.4%–34.4%
Net edge31.1%
Rubric80/100
  • model-market divergence exceeds plausibility cap
  • position size below one whole contract
watch
Raw2.0%
Calibrated19.4%
Range4.4%–34.4%
Net edge31.1%
Rubric80/100
  • model-market divergence exceeds plausibility cap
watch
Raw2.0%
Calibrated19.4%
Range4.4%–34.4%
Net edge31.1%
Rubric80/100
  • model-market divergence exceeds plausibility cap
watch
Raw2.0%
Calibrated19.4%
Range4.4%–34.4%
Net edge31.1%
Rubric80/100
  • model-market divergence exceeds plausibility cap
pass
Raw46.3%
Calibrated47.9%
Range27.9%–67.9%
Net edge-5.7%
Rubric58/100
  • net edge below threshold
  • rubric below threshold
  • position size rounded to zero