Verifiable performance
Every call, kept.
Each decision is frozen with a SHA-256 hash before the market resolves, then kept here after it — wins, losses, and fees alike. A record built this way cannot be rewritten, only extended.
Recording since8/18/2026
Wins, losses, and P&L by window
Performance
| Window | Settled | W–L | Win rate | Realized P&L | Fees |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 24 hours | 8 | 0–8 | 0% | -$11.22 | $0.59 |
| Last 7 days | 14 | 4–10 | 29% | +$213.80 | $0.59 |
| Last 30 days | 14 | 4–10 | 29% | +$213.80 | $0.59 |
| All time | 14 | 4–10 | 29% | +$213.80 | $0.59 |
| weather | 14 | 4–10 | 29% | +$213.80 | $0.59 |
| Return on bankroll | $2,500 Mirror | $100 Micro |
|---|---|---|
| Last 24 hours | -0.48% | -4.90% |
| Last 7 days | +8.47% | -5.21% |
| Last 30 days | +8.47% | -5.21% |
| All time | +8.47% | -5.21% |
$2,500 Mirror · settlement-only equity
Equity curve
View equity data table
| Date | Equity |
|---|---|
| Aug 18 | $2500.00 |
| Aug 18 | $2500.00 |
| Aug 18 | $2500.00 |
| Aug 18 | $2500.00 |
| Aug 19 | $2725.08 |
| Aug 19 | $2725.01 |
| Aug 19 | $2724.99 |
| Aug 19 | $2724.83 |
| Aug 19 | $2724.75 |
| Aug 20 | $2719.10 |
| Aug 20 | $2715.76 |
| Aug 20 | $2715.72 |
| Aug 20 | $2715.42 |
| Aug 20 | $2714.85 |
| Aug 20 | $2711.64 |
Last 35 days · both wallets
Daily P&L
1819202122232425262728293031123456789101112131415161718192021
Green days won, red days lost, blank days had no settlements. Intensity scales with the day's realized result.
Settled outcomes
The record
| Settled | Market | Position | Forecast | Result | P&L | Decision hash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/20/2026$100 micro — real demo orders | KXHIGHCHI-26AUG19-B78.5KXHIGHCHI-26AUG19-B78.5 | YES 5 @ 6¢ | 37% to win | LOSTsettled NO | -$0.32 | 6a1c50cfe90c…frozen 8/19/2026, 6:04:11 PM |
| 8/20/2026$2,500 mirror — simulated scale | KXHIGHCHI-26AUG19-B78.5KXHIGHCHI-26AUG19-B78.5 | YES 5 @ 6¢ | 37% to win | LOSTsettled NO | -$0.32 | 6a1c50cfe90c…frozen 8/19/2026, 6:04:11 PM |
| 8/20/2026$100 micro — real demo orders | KXHIGHPHIL-26AUG19-B90.5KXHIGHPHIL-26AUG19-B90.5 | NO 1 @ 32¢ | 72% to win | LOSTsettled YES | -$0.34 | 7fac261475d3…frozen 8/19/2026, 7:32:16 PM |
| 8/20/2026$2,500 mirror — simulated scale | KXHIGHPHIL-26AUG19-B90.5KXHIGHPHIL-26AUG19-B90.5 | NO 5 @ 32¢ | 72% to win | LOSTsettled YES | -$1.68 | 7fac261475d3…frozen 8/19/2026, 7:32:16 PM |
| 8/20/2026$100 micro — real demo orders | KXHIGHTBOS-26AUG19-B86.5KXHIGHTBOS-26AUG19-B86.5 | YES 17 @ 16¢ | 37% to win | LOSTsettled NO | -$2.88 | e1ca08798dbf…frozen 8/19/2026, 7:22:16 PM |
| 8/20/2026$2,500 mirror — simulated scale | KXHIGHTBOS-26AUG19-B86.5KXHIGHTBOS-26AUG19-B86.5 | YES 17 @ 16¢ | 37% to win | LOSTsettled NO | -$2.88 | e1ca08798dbf…frozen 8/19/2026, 7:22:16 PM |
| 8/20/2026$100 micro — real demo orders | KXHIGHMIA-26AUG19-B95.5KXHIGHMIA-26AUG19-B95.5 | NO 4.3 @ 31¢ | 67% to win | LOSTsettled YES | -$1.40 | 1c3d44451417…frozen 8/19/2026, 5:54:11 PM |
| 8/20/2026$2,500 mirror — simulated scale | KXHIGHMIA-26AUG19-B95.5KXHIGHMIA-26AUG19-B95.5 | NO 4.3 @ 31¢ | 67% to win | LOSTsettled YES | -$1.40 | 1c3d44451417…frozen 8/19/2026, 5:54:11 PM |
| 8/19/2026$100 micro — real demo orders | KXRAIN-26AUG18-NYCKXRAIN-26AUG18-NYC | NO 9 @ 52¢ | 78% to win | LOSTsettled YES | -$4.68 | e64d867588cb…frozen 8/18/2026, 10:33:39 PM |
| 8/19/2026$100 micro — real demo orders | KXRAIN-26AUG18-BOSKXRAIN-26AUG18-BOS | NO 9.61 @ 52¢ | 85% to win | WONsettled NO | +$4.61 | e3f292d47bd3…frozen 8/18/2026, 9:01:13 PM |
| 8/19/2026$2,500 mirror — simulated scale | KXRAINSHARD2-26AUG18-NYCKXRAINSHARD2-26AUG18-NYC | NO 121 @ 52¢ | 78% to win | LOSTsettled YES | -$62.92 | e64d867588cb…frozen 8/18/2026, 10:33:39 PM |
| 8/19/2026$2,500 mirror — simulated scale | KXRAINSHARD2-26AUG18-MIAKXRAINSHARD2-26AUG18-MIA | NO 200 @ 52¢ | 85% to win | WONsettled NO | +$96.00 | ed0113bec7ba…frozen 8/18/2026, 10:23:39 PM |
| 8/19/2026$2,500 mirror — simulated scale | KXRAINSHARD2-26AUG18-DCKXRAINSHARD2-26AUG18-DC | NO 200 @ 52¢ | 82% to win | WONsettled NO | +$96.00 | a9737b71bcf6…frozen 8/18/2026, 10:11:50 PM |
| 8/19/2026$2,500 mirror — simulated scale | KXRAINSHARD2-26AUG18-BOSKXRAINSHARD2-26AUG18-BOS | NO 200 @ 52¢ | 85% to win | WONsettled NO | +$96.00 | e3f292d47bd3…frozen 8/18/2026, 9:01:13 PM |
Every forecast graded, not just trades
Calibration
Reliability by confidence bucket
10-20%n=1213
20-30%n=887
30-40%n=780
40-50%n=55
50-60%n=111
60-70%n=90
Bars compare what the engine predicted (amber) with how often YES actually happened (teal). Perfect calibration makes every pair match.
Brier score by category
- Overall
- 0.177
- weather (3136)
- 0.177
0 is clairvoyance, 0.25 is coin-flipping. Below 0.25 means the forecasts carry real information; the number only counts once outcomes are known.
Why you can trust this
How to verify the record
Before any market resolves, the engine serializes its full decision — forecast, price, sizing, and reasoning — and stores a SHA-256 hash of it. The hash is shown here beside the outcome. Because the hash was fixed before the result was known, this record cannot be cherry-picked or rewritten after the fact: changing a single digit of any past decision would change its hash.
All trading is demo money on Kalshi's sandbox exchange. Losses stay on this page forever, next to the wins. That is the point.